00:00 Speaker A
More record closes to end the trading day. Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre joining me now with that and more on the trading day takeaways, Jared.
00:08 Jared Blikre
We got to go with records galore because we have seen a lot of them recently and these things tend to cluster. And so let’s take a look at the Nasdaq and, well, this is a Dow. Let’s go to the Nasdaq composite. Just had its 20th of the year. This chart here is 87 days. This is since since that April 8th bottom and 42%, that was one of the most blistering rea rallies that we’ve ever seen in the index right off of those scary lows. S&P 500, this will be number 17 for the year. So that’s up 30%. And you can go down the pike here. Russell 2000 small caps are just higher than that, 32%. And you can see they recently broke out here. So, I’m a little bit, and by the way, I don’t want to suggest that the Russell 2000 is in records right now. It has a little ways to go, but um, just kind of surveying the market overall. We’re seeing this in a broad number of areas. So I can go to XL C that ticked off another record today, number 11 for the year. That has meta, that also has alphabet in it. Then we have the value, VLUE. That just kind of exploded. That has four record highs now. And then a bunch of individual stocks. I can go down the list, but there’s a lot of them. So that has me kind of excited right now.
00:55 Speaker A
I always you to take a deep breath, think about potential downside risk. What would they be?
01:00 Jared Blikre
Yes. You asked me that at the 3:00 p.m. hour, right at the beginning. I thought that was a great question, so I wanted to explore this. Um, I’m going to talk about liquidity. Is it going to be trapped right now? But just kind of to kind of back up a minute, what could be going wrong in the market that we have to worry about? We just passed some really big tests for the market. We had, uh, what was not a great jobs report last Friday, but we ended up much higher, you know, in the intervening days. We had a CPI report yesterday that was actually pretty good for the markets. Uh, that propelled a lot of markets to record highs. So if it’s not the macro reports, what is it? Is it valuation? That is a longer-term story. The markets can be, uh, overvalued for long periods of time. And so one of the things I’m looking at is liquidity. And a really interesting phenomenon that’s going on right now that’s way under the radar, the Treasury has an account at the Federal Reserve, and they have said that they’re going to build that up by $400 billion over the next eight weeks. And so that’s $400 billion that’s going to be taken out of the system. When this has happened before, sometimes it’s caused a liquidity crunch. Sometimes that has spilled over into risk assets. And so this information was brought to me my attention by Alfonso Picotello of the macro compass. And here’s a quote from his latest report. The $400 billion plus increase in eight weeks could be one of the most aggressive treasury general account. That’s that Treasury account at the Fed rebuilds over the last 10 years. And so that’s what I’m paying attention to. I would also add, you weren’t here yesterday, but I got to break down the VIX seasonality with Ali Kanal. Historically, the VIX tends to rise at this period of the year into October. That so we could have a market crash, but that’s just history. Doesn’t speak anything else to like current fundamentals or anything.
02:23 Speaker A
Should we talk crypto?
02:24 Jared Blikre
Can we talk crypto? Because ether is going to the moon. 4,500 was my last hold out. It’s not a record high for Ethereum, but it just passed that with blazing colors. And I’m going to show you a chart here. Let me get to our crypto map and I’ll put a longer-term Ethereum chart so I can show you the resistance that it just cleared. Here’s six years and here is this multi-year consolidation about a year and a half that we just broke out of. And it has only taken a few days to climb from basically 4,000 to 4,700. And if I put some candlesticks, you will see the intraday high. We are right there at the Rubicon. So, almost, uh, record highs for Ethereum that we’re looking at right now. This has important implications. Stable coins are in the news, the Genius Act and everything. Ethereum is kind of the layer that makes that enables all of that. You can have other layers, but Ethereum seems to be the winner here. Market is taking taking note and we also have all these companies. You know, we know Steve Sailor’s company strategy is buying Bitcoin. Now we have companies buying ether. So I think that’s part of a new trend and that’s just getting me bullish on crypto.
03:22 Speaker A
That’s anything you’re on the dollar. What you’re seeing.
03:26 Jared Blikre
Dollar has been heading down recently. And, uh, that’s not necessarily bad for the markets. That can be a risk on move. Sometimes when you have the dollar going down, what you don’t want is to see, uh, bonds also getting sold, which means yields are going up. So you want to see the dollar going down with yields, and that’s what happened today. Now, around liberation day, that was kind of towards the left of part of your chart there, that was a different story. You had the dollar index going opposite yields, and that was a case of the whole world trying to get rid of all these, uh, dollars and dollar denominated assets. So far, this looks like just another risk market kind of, uh, tailwind. So I’m going to take it for what it is. If it crashes, it’s not good, but just a little bit of downside is not bad.
04:04 Speaker A
All right, well on there. Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it.
04:06 Jared Blikre
You bet you.