The race to launch the first spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States is heating up, with approval odds soaring to record highs.
Betting platforms like Polymarket are showing near-unanimous confidence, with forecasts now placing the likelihood of a green light in 2025 at an eye-catching 99%.
This surge in optimism follows the debut of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF (SSK) earlier in July. The product, which combines SOL exposure with staking rewards, saw more than $20 million in first-day trading volume. Analysts say the success of SSK has strengthened the case for a pure spot Solana ETF, suggesting strong investor demand is already in place.
Invesco and Galaxy Move One Step Closer
Momentum picked up again this week after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission formally acknowledged a spot Solana ETF application from Invesco and Galaxy Digital, originally filed in June. This acknowledgment triggers the start of the official review period, meaning a decision will now be on the regulator’s agenda.
While the SEC has yet to commit to a timeline, some ETF analysts — including James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas — believe an approval could arrive as soon as October. Still, delays remain a possibility, as the SEC has often pushed back decisions on similar crypto ETF proposals.
A Crowded Applicant Field
The Invesco-Galaxy bid is just one of several in the pipeline. Major names like Fidelity, VanEck, Bitwise, and Grayscale are also vying for approval, with Grayscale aiming to convert its existing GSOL Solana Trust into an ETF.
The regulator’s recent request for issuers to update their S-1 filings is being interpreted by some market watchers as a sign of active engagement, though no official approval date has been set.
Given the momentum from recent ETF launches, rising institutional interest in digital assets, and the nearly unanimous confidence reflected in betting markets, many investors believe the first spot Solana ETF could be just around the corner.
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