Solana Surge Leads Crypto Rebound—Where Does SOL Go Next?
Solana is shining again today, a bright spot in an otherwise mostly sideways crypto market.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, the leading crypto assets by market capitalization, have experienced marginal gains of roughly 2% each, helping to boost the overall market above $3.9 trillion once again. But Solana is leading the charge among crypto majors, up a sizable 8% in the last 24 hours, currently trading above $209. Can SOL sustain this momentum?
The crypto market bounce comes as traditional markets find their footing, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.69% to 6,481 points and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advancing 0.4% to 21,544. Risk appetite among investors is increasing in almost every direction, with Brent crude oil edging up 0.94% to $67.85 per barrel while gold (usually considered a hedge against risk) slightly retreats, down 0.18%, to $3,383 per ounce.
This broad-based market bounce could suggest renewed investor confidence following a period of consolidation, though the varying strength across different assets hints at a potential rotation into select altcoins. It’s possible, then, that Solana is the next trade that traders are eyeing.
Do market indicators support the view? Let’s dive into the numbers.
Solana’s rally from an opening price of $195 to a high of $209.33 could be viewed as just another day in the volatile crypto market among experienced traders. The coin has been slowly trending up since April, and it’s now testing a strong resistance level at today’s highs.
Solana price data. Image: Tradingview
But even with a challenging goal ahead, the technical picture still shows some strength.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is currently at 28 for Solana. This reading confirms what traders are seeing on their screens—a strong, but slow trending environment. The ADX measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, where readings above 25 indicate an established trend. At 28, Solana’s ADX suggests this isn’t just noise but genuine directional movement that trend-following traders typically seek.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is at 60, which sits in what traders would consider a bullish zone without reaching “overhyped” territory. RSI measures momentum between 0 and 100, with readings above 70 typically signalling overbought market conditions and triggering profit-taking. At 60, SOL has room to run before algorithmic selling kicks in, suggesting another 10-15% upside is possible before hitting resistance. This is crucial for momentum traders who rely on these levels to time entries and exits.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows that traders are struggling to push prices beyond the resistance, and there may be some price compression ahead. If the bullish indicators remain valid, then the market could be poised to break out of its consolidation phase, often leading to multi-day or multi-week moves.
Traders use exponential moving averages to gauge price supports and resistances, with EMAs taking the average price of a given asset over a set period of time. Solana’s 50-day exponential moving average, the average price of the last 50 days, provides support below current prices. The 200-day EMA is even lower, providing further support, and pointing at another bullish scenario for traders. In other words, the current price of SOL is higher right now than its average price in the short-term and in the longer term, and that’s a good thing if you’re a Solana bull.
The small gap between these EMAs is a sign that the price of SOL, though going up, is moving up very slowly, which is not the case for other coins that are simply cooling down. This configuration typically occurs in strong uptrends and gives buyers multiple opportunities to enter on dips, which is why many traders view it as a sign of underlying strength.
It’s no wonder, then, why traders on prediction markets are beginning to swing bullish on Solana. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the odds of Solana hitting a new all-time high price over $294 are beginning to tick up today. Just two days ago, bears were in control, placing odds of a new SOL all-time high this year at just 34%. Today, those odds have skyrocketed to just above 50%.
Myriad traders are currently calling it a coin flip, but the trend—over the last two days, at least—is clear.
A separate market asks Myriad users to predict which comes first: Solana pumping to $250, or dumping to $130? On this market, the bulls are leading the way by a wide margin. Traders currently place the odds of SOL hitting $250 before dropping to $130 at 71%.
Key Levels:
Immediate support: $200 (psychological level and breakout point)
Strong support: $180 (50-day EMA zone)
Immediate resistance: $210 (today’s high)
Strong resistance: $220-240 (technical target from measured move)
When weighing the potential trajectory of an altcoin, it’s helpful to measure it against the market leader in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s journey today from an opening of $111,789, then rising to $112,646 before settling at $112,173—a modest 0.34% gain—tells a story of consolidation rather than conviction. Today’s candlestick formation looks poised to post a gain and erase yesterday’s losses, but the technical indicators suggest the king of crypto is still catching its breath.
Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview
The way the Bitcoin market is currently behaving has been enough to flip the odds on one of Myriad’s most active prediction markets. Two weeks ago, Myriad’s “Bitcoin’s next hit” market, which asks traders to predict if BTC moons to $125K or dips to $105K, placed odds on the moon scenario at above 90%. Now, those odds have been turned upside down, with 60% favoring the dip scenario that sends BTC down to $105K.
In other words, Bitcoin bulls have been increasingly losing confidence over the last two weeks. Again, looking at the charts, it’s not hard to see why.
Bitcoin’s ADX at 17 shows a market without clear direction. This indicator, which measures trend strength regardless of direction, suggests readings below 20 indicate no trend and choppy, directionless trading. At 17, Bitcoin’s ADX is telling traders we’re in no man’s land—the hype is fading and neither bulls nor bears have control. This typically means range-bound trading where buying support and selling resistance creates a sideways grind that frustrates trend followers but rewards patient range traders.
The RSI at 43 paints a slightly bearish but not dire picture. Think of RSI as a speedometer for price momentum. Readings below 50 indicate selling pressure outweighs buying. At 43, Bitcoin is like a car running on low fuel but not quite empty. Contrarian traders often view these levels as potential buying opportunities, betting on a bounce. But, for most traders, it’s not a good signal to see such a low number. We’re approaching but haven’t quite reached the danger zone where capitulation typically occurs.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator creates an interesting divergence with the weak trend readings. Bitcoin’s reading suggests volatility is compressing—imagine a spring being wound tighter. When combined with low ADX readings, this often precedes violent moves in either direction, with the configuration suggesting a probability of a longer bearish correction rather than an explosion to the upside if the 50-day EMA consolidates as a resistance.
All that is to say, if you’re currently banking on a thesis of “Bitcoin money rotating into alts” (like Solana), the data currently appears to bear that out.
Key Levels:
Immediate support: $110,000 (psychological level and recent low)
